HYANNIS Higher health care costs and a limited labor force are among the problems Cape Cod can expect to see if the region does not make an effort to attract and keep more young people, demographics expert Peter Francese said yesterday.
"We need to incentivize young people to come back ... and stay on the Cape," Francese told a crowd of more than 300 business leaders and policymakers at an economic summit at the Cape Codder Resort in Hyannis.
Increasing health care costs
Less support for public schools
Decreased home values
Limited workforce
More severe traffic congestion
Slowed growth in retail sector
Francese's address based on his analysis of federal, state and local data resources was the centerpiece of the event, organized by the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce.
In addition to his presentation, panels of business people from a range of industries weighed in on the impact of the Cape's changing demographics.
The news delivered by Francese, who speaks and writes on demographics and marketing, was not always encouraging.
Growth in the number of year-round residents, he said, "has virtually ceased." Provincetown, Barnstable, Dennis and Yarmouth have all lost residents since 2000.
In the years from 2000 to 2006, there were 5,000 more deaths than births on the Cape. Only 10 counties nationwide experienced a greater differential between deaths and births.
"This bespeaks a very rapidly aging population," he said, adding that the median age on the Cape is 45.7, among the highest in the country.
Among the consequences of an aging population, he explained, is a more restricted workforce.
"Labor is already very tight on the Cape," Francese said, "and this is only going to get worse."
Furthermore, older residents will depend more and more on Medicare and Medicaid to pay for their health care.
Because these programs do not reimburse hospitals and doctors for all of their expenses, he explained, this extra cost is shifted to the general population, causing increases in the overall cost of health care.
Some of the Cape's housing trends are also of concern, he said.
In addition, children live in only 21 percent of households. If that ratio gets any lower, community support for public schools could "evaporate," Francese said.
The loss of adults age 35 to 44 and their families worried Richard Neitz, a Yarmouth real estate agent and the chairman of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce.
"It's imperative," he said, to keep parents and children on the Cape. "If you lose those people you lose the future."
There is, however, one positive trend in the figures the increasing number of residents in the 15 to 34 age range. This trend is a shift from what Francese found when he last looked into Cape data in 2003.
"The high growth in (this range) is your singular opportunity," Francese said. "It should be the priority of every leader on the Cape to make sure those people stay ... and most importantly spend money."
Creating opportunities for affordable rental housing, he said, will be one of the keys to attracting and keeping younger residents, many of whom are not yet ready to buy a home.
Dorothy Savarese, the CEO of Cape Cod Five Savings Bank and one of the event's panelists, agreed that this is a crucial issue.
"Rental housing is what young people want," she said. "What can we as a community do to encourage that?"
Improving the situation will require the use of several strategies, Francese said. Zoning regulations, he said, could be changed to make it easier and less costly to build high-density housing developments, easing traffic and improving affordability.
Panelist Douglas Storrs, the vice president of Mashpee Commons, expressed enthusiastic support for this idea.
"The two things that are stopping us from achieving what we are talking about are zoning and the economy," he said. "If we don't create an economic incentive to do (this) it will never happen."
More widespread broadband and wireless Internet access could make the area more attractive for professionals in information-based industries, Francese said.
To help achieve results, Francese suggested consolidating regulatory and governmental agencies, an approach he acknowledged may be unpopular.
"It is extraordinarily difficult to make this occur," he said, "but if these were easy problems, we wouldn't be where we are."
Francese's comments spurred in attendees a level of interest and desire for action that organizers did not expect.
"We are thrilled that it led to a much broader conversation about what we can do as a community," said Wendy Northcross, CEO of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce.
The chamber, she said, will be involved in gathering interested people to map out next steps for facing the challenges that Francese outlined.
Changing the trends, said Francese, is challenging but possible.
"All we need is a rebalancing of the human ecology of the region," he said.
Sarah Shemkus can be reached at sshemkus@capecodonline.com.
– Increase affordable rental housing
– Change zoning regulations to encourage high-density, mixed-use housing
– Address traffic, wastewater and other infrastructure concerns
– Improve wireless and broadband Internet access
– Consolidate local governmental and regulatory functions
– Add services and facilities to encourage young workers to stay on the Cape
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